FIFA World Cup 2026

Our World Cup model got the winner wrong. It also got almost everything that mattered right. That distinction is the point. One month ago, we published a forecast based on 100,000 simulations. France was our central pick, and France is out after losing to Spain. Our single best estimate of the champion was wrong. 

The broader model was not. The four teams with the highest probabilities were France, Spain, Argentina and England. Those were exactly the four teams that reached the semi-finals. England was our most contrarian call. We ranked them fourth and described them as the most undervalued team in the tournament. Consensus had Brazil progressing through that side of the draw. We disagreed. Our model showed England as the more likely semi-finalist and Brazil’s path as more difficult than the market recognised.

England advanced. Brazil did not. Models do not predict every outcome. Nobody has a crystal ball, whether in football, economics or markets. We said from the outset that France, Spain and Argentina were separated by less than one percentage point. A serious probabilistic model does not offer false certainty. It shows the range of outcomes and where consensus may be mispricing the probabilities. The field was the signal. The eventual winner was one possible realisation. 

That is also why diversification matters. When several outcomes remain plausible, the answer is not to pretend one forecast is certain. It is to size positions according to conviction, spread risk across different sources of return and build a portfolio that can withstand being wrong on any single view. Diversification is not a lack of conviction. It is recognition that even a strong thesis can be overwhelmed by timing, politics, liquidity, sentiment or an outcome elsewhere in the probability distribution. This is how we approach markets.

We collect, clean and process data quickly because speed to insight can be an edge. We then combine statistical discipline, investment judgement and an understanding of what is already priced. Technology alone is not enough. Mathematics alone is not enough. Market experience alone is not enough. The advantage comes from combining all three: the maths, the machine and the market. The World Cup gave us a transparent way to demonstrate the process. The stakes are different in investment management, but the discipline is the same: understand the probabilities, challenge consensus, diversify intelligently and allocate capital where risk and reward are mispriced.