FIFA World Cup 2026

With the FIFA World Cup 2026 kicking off tomorrow, we ran 100,000 simulations. Here's what the numbers say and what they don't. 

France is our central call at 21.0%, but Spain (20.5%) and Argentina (20.2%) are breathing down their necks. Less than one percentage point separates the top three. That is not a forecast. 

Together they hold 62% of all simulated titles. The remaining 38% is being enthusiastically divided among 45 other nations with varying degrees of optimism.

Our most interesting finding? England at 14.3%. A clear fourth, and in our view, the most undervalued team in this tournament. The model puts them past Brazil in the quarterfinals more often than not. 

Brazil and Portugal fans, we feel for you. Both strong sides. Both drew with the same half as England and Argentina. Sometimes the bracket does more damage than the opposition ever could. 

The projected final: France vs Argentina. Expected goals: 1.35 to 1.33. 100,000 simulations, and the model genuinely cannot split them.

Football is gloriously unpredictable. The data just helps us understand exactly how unpredictable it is, and apparently, we needed 100,000 runs to confirm that.