News & Insights

Japan spent $59bn in a single day defending its currency. The US then joined in and paid for it by selling euros, not dollars. Here's the chain reaction, and why it doesn't stop at Tokyo. The yen hit a 40-year low last week. Japan intervened at record scale. Then, for the first time in over a decade, the US Treasury joined it buying yen through the NY Fed, funded by euro sales, executed via Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. Why would Washington bother? Japan holds $1.19 trill

The amateur's error in forecasting is to fall in love with the point estimate. The professional's job is to price the distribution around it, and the past two weeks in oil markets have been a live exam in exactly that. The setup first. On 3 July the Ministry of Industries, Mines and Energy cut Walvis Bay petrol to N$22.48/litre, correctly, off a June of truce, Brent near USD 70 and healthy over-recoveries. Four days later the truce collapsed. Within a week merchant ships were

Our World Cup model got the winner wrong. It also got almost everything that mattered right. That distinction is the point. One month ago, we published a forecast based on 100,000 simulations. France was our central pick, and France is out after losing to Spain. Our single best estimate of the champion was wrong. The broader model was not. The four teams with the highest probabilities were France, Spain, Argentina and England. Those were exactly the four teams that reached t

With the FIFA World Cup 2026 kicking off tomorrow, we ran 100,000 simulations. Here's what the numbers say and what they don't. France is our central call at 21.0%, but Spain (20.5%) and Argentina (20.2%) are breathing down their necks. Less than one percentage point separates the top three. That is not a forecast. Together they hold 62% of all simulated titles. The remaining 38% is being enthusiastically divided among 45 other nations with varying degrees of optimism. Our

With tensions in the Middle East still ongoing and oil reacting to supply concerns around Iran, investors are again asking the right question: has inflation really been defeated, or is a second wave starting to form? We do not think the market is saying second wave yet. Crude looks uncomfortable at first glance. Front-month Brent is near $94 after briefly spiking above $115. But oil alone does not set inflation. The key question is whether the shock is feeding through into ex

With tensions in the Middle East still ongoing and oil reacting to supply concerns around Iran, investors are again asking the right question: has inflation really been defeated, or is a second wave starting to form? We do not think the market is saying second wave yet. Crude looks uncomfortable at first glance. Front-month Brent is near $94 after briefly spiking above $115. But oil alone does not set inflation. The key question is whether the shock is feeding through into ex

The chart above tells a story that budget speeches tend to soften. We built it from the ground up using official MTEF data, NSA national accounts and our own fiscal stress methodology at SSS CIO Research. What it shows is straightforward and uncomfortable. In 2015, Namibia’s public payroll and nominal GDP were still growing at broadly comparable rates. The lines tracked each other. The system was not without pressure, but it remained manageable. That balance has now broken do

The oil market is splitting in two. Most are watching the wrong half we think. Brent spot ran to $115 when conflict escalated, pulling back to $108. The retreat looks like relief. We think it is more conditional than that. The 3M futures contract never followed. It sits at $97. That $11 spread between what spot fears today and what professional money expects three months out is the single most important number in global markets this week. Futures markets are slow to lie. Inst

The energy shock is moving into the real economy much faster than most desks anticipated. Three weeks into the US Iran conflict, the Strait of Hormuz is effectively impaired, and with Brent pushing past 112 dollars, we are no longer looking at a price spike but a structural bottleneck. While the strip implies an eventual return toward 80 dollars by late 2027, shipping confidence takes far longer to rebuild than a ceasefire takes to sign. Our house view is that Brent remains a

The recent repricing in oil markets has renewed concerns about a potential inflation spillover into Namibia. Our assessment is that the interpretation should remain disciplined. While oil prices have moved higher in response to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, market signals do not yet point to a structurally higher global energy price regime. Historically, Namibia’s inflation has shown sensitivity to large moves in global energy prices, although the transmission is

Brent crude moved back above $100 per barrel, briefly touching $114, after direct strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and the effective disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the corridor through which roughly 20% of global oil supply normally flows. At the same time LNG production in Qatar has been halted following attacks on Ras Laffan and Mesaieed, removing a meaningful portion of global gas supply from the market. This is not simply a geopolitical risk

Namibian Fuel Prices

The rand has strengthened through R16 to the US dollar for the first time since June 2022. After appreciating by around 14 percent in 2025, it is already more than 3 percent stronger again in 2026.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has pushed to fresh highs, rising around 0.7% on the latest session and extending its advance to a fourth consecutive week.

The rand continues to hold firm against major currencies, supported by a stabilising global backdrop and improving local sentiment. Since late July, EUR/ZAR has moved from around 21.1 to 20.0, and USD/ZAR from 18.3 to 17.2 — a gain of roughly 5–6 percent for the rand. The global policy story is key. The Federal Reserve delivered two rate cuts in September and October, lowering the effective funds rate from 4.33% to 3.87%, and is now expected to pause through early 2026. Marke

China’s post-Covid recovery has fallen short of expectations, with economic performance consistently lagging behind forecasts. This has led to mounting global expectations for bold action from Beijing. But what’s behind this slowdown, and which steps should policymakers consider to bring growth back on track?

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