News & Insights

The energy shock is moving into the real economy much faster than most desks anticipated. Three weeks into the US Iran conflict, the Strait of Hormuz is effectively impaired, and with Brent pushing past 112 dollars, we are no longer looking at a price spike but a structural bottleneck. While the strip implies an eventual return toward 80 dollars by late 2027, shipping confidence takes far longer to rebuild than a ceasefire takes to sign. Our house view is that Brent remains a

The recent repricing in oil markets has renewed concerns about a potential inflation spillover into Namibia. Our assessment is that the interpretation should remain disciplined. While oil prices have moved higher in response to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, market signals do not yet point to a structurally higher global energy price regime. Historically, Namibia’s inflation has shown sensitivity to large moves in global energy prices, although the transmission is

Brent crude moved back above $100 per barrel, briefly touching $114, after direct strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and the effective disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the corridor through which roughly 20% of global oil supply normally flows. At the same time LNG production in Qatar has been halted following attacks on Ras Laffan and Mesaieed, removing a meaningful portion of global gas supply from the market. This is not simply a geopolitical risk